02 September 2012

MMF podržava 100% rezerve?

U novom radu koji izdaje MMF razmatra se stari predlog za uspostavu bankarstva sa 100% rezervama, koji je prvi dao Irvign Fisher, a podržli između ostalih i Henry Simons i Milton Friedman (zato se ideja često zove "čikaški plan"). Članak zaključuje da bi ovaj predlog bio vrlo dobar za američku ekonomiju i doneo stope rasta od skoro 10% (model tako kaže:)).

 U svakom slučaju, ovde ima dve interesantne stvari. Prvo, ideja o 100% bankarstvu nije neka luda, filozofska izmišljotina Murray Rothbarda i njegovih sledbenika, nego su istu ideju zagovarali i mnogi "respektabilni" ekonomisti, poput Fishera i Friedmana. I drugo, MMF izlazi sa idejom ukidanja frakcionog bankarstva, što je vrlo neobično i bar za mene neočekivano. Evo apstrakta:

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Ludwig von Mises koji je podržavao 100% rezerve bez centralne banke u svojoj knjizi Human Action (str. 442) odbacuje ovaj "čikaški predlog", sa obrazloženjem da on ostavlja vladi suviše velika ovlašćenja.

In carrying the idea implied in the Currency Theory to its full logical conclusion, one could suggest that all banks be forced by law to keep against the total amount of money-substitutes (banknotes plus demand deposits) a 100 per cent money reserve. This is the core of Professor Irving Fisher’s 100 per cent plan. But Professor Fisher combined his plan with his proposals concerning the adoption of an index-number standard. It has been pointed out already why such a scheme is illusory and tantamount to open approval of the government’s power to manipulate purchasing power according to the appetites of powerful pressure groups. But even if the 100 percent reserve plan were to be adopted on the basis of the unadulterated gold standard, it would not entirely remove the drawbacks inherent in every kind of government interference with banking. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract.