"Sve zalihe nafte u svetu biće iscrpljene do 2047. godine", objavio je neki evropski energetski portal a prenosi B92.
Zalihe nafte u svetu neće nikada biti iscrpljene. Prvo što se dešava kada neki resurs postaje redak je da njegova cena raste. Kada njegova cena raste, postajemo štedljiviji sa njim. A kad poraste preko granice ispativosti, prestajemo da ga koristimo.
Kada nafta postane ređa biće skuplja, što znači da će alternative biti jeftinije. Kada se budemo okrenuli drugim izvorima energije, ne zbog građanske svesti nego zbog njihove cene koja će biti niža od nafte, milioni tona nafte ostaće da leže neiskorišćeni.
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Odlican stari tekst iz Ekonomista (iz 1997.). Doduse, traze pretplatu, ali su na sajtu Ecoglobe bili dovoljno ljubazni da ga prekopiraju.
http://www.ecoglobe.org/nz/sustain/econ1010.htm
Iz clanka:
Environmental scare stories now follow such a predictable line that we can chart their course. Year 1 is the year of the scientist, who discovers some potential threat. Year 2 is the year of the journalist, who oversimplifies and exaggerates it. Only now, in year 3, do the environmentalists join the bandwagon (almost no green scare has been started by greens). They polarise the issue. Either you agree that the world is about to come to an end and are fired by righteous indignation, or you are a paid lackey of big business.
Year 4 is the year of the bureaucrat. A conference is mooted, keeping public officials well supplied with club-class tickets and limelight. This diverts the argument from science to regulation. A totemic "target" is the key feature: 30% reductions in sulphur emissions; stabilisation of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels; 140,000 ritually slaughtered healthy British cows.
Year 5 is the time to pick a villain and gang up on him. It is usually America (global warming) or Britain (acid rain), but Russia (CFCs and ozone) or Brazil (deforestation) have had their day. Year 6 is the time for the sceptic who says the scare is exaggerated. This drives greens into paroxysms of pious rage. "How dare you give space to fringe views?" cry these once-fringe people to newspaper editors. But by now the scientist who first gave the warning is often embarrassingly to be found among the sceptics. Roger Revelle, nickname "Dr Greenhouse", who fired Al Gore with global warming evangelism, wrote just before his death in 1991: "The scientific basis for greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time."
Year 7 is the year of the quiet climbdown. Without fanfare, the official consensus estimate of the size of the problem is shrunk. Thus, when nobody was looking, the population "explosion" became an asymptotic rise to a maximum of just 15 billion; this was then downgraded to 12 billion, then less than 10 billion. That means population will never double again. Greenhouse warming was originally going to be "uncontrolled". Then it was going to be 2.5-4 degrees in a century. Then it became 1.5-3 degrees (according to the United Nations). In two years, elephants went from imminent danger of extinction to badly in need of contraception (the facts did not change, the reporting did).
Smanje se rezerve, skoci cena nafte, manje razvijene zemlje nemaju "alternativne izvore", izbija Treci svetski rat.Naftna polja postaju neprocenjiv strateski resurs...
Tesko je meriti koristi alternativnih izvora energije, ali ako pogledamo potencijalne "troskove" njihovog nepostojanja...
Slazem se da nafta nece u potpunosti nestati, ali mozda mi hocemo umesto nje.
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