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08 January 2009

Još o razmerama krize

Evo još malo činjenične podrške tvrdnji da reakcije država na finansijsku krizu premašuju razmere same originalne krize u SAD.

1) U 2008. je propalo 25 banaka, od preko 7 hiljada banaka u SAD i u poređenju sa stotinama propalih banaka godišnje tokom 1980-ih i 1990-ih. Evo jednostavnog grafika o broju bankrostava u bližoj prošlosti.

2) Setimo se da je opravdanje za bailout od 700 milijardi bila tvrdnja da ni zdravi biznisi ne mogu uzimati kredita za obrtna sredstva, zbog čega neće moći da isplate ni plate. Evo podataka o ukupnom obimu plata u periodu od izbijanja krize i njenog vrhunca (septembar, oktobar), do trenutka kada je bailout počeo da se sprovodi (novembar). Plate se ni pre bailouta nisu ni pomakle.

3) Evo još podataka o ukupnom obimu kredita koji demantuju da je postojao bilo kakav "kreditni krah". Ukupan obim kredita, komercijalnih, potrošačkih i stambenih, je i na vrhuncu krize nastavio da raste.

1 comment:

Dejan said...

Nadjoh o tome i na reason.org:

September 24, 2008, should go down in the history books as a day of infamy. And clarity.

That's when President George W. Bush looked into the eyes of anxious Americans and told them they weren't being nearly anxious enough. "America could slip into a financial panic," he warned (or was it threatened?), just hours before Washington Mutual became the biggest bank to fail in U.S. history without generating as much as a fluttered eyelid from blasé depositors (including me). "Millions of Americans could lose their jobs," he said, one week before new federal data showed unemployment unchanged at 6.1 percent, lower than it was for any month between January 1980 and June 1987. "The value of your home could plummet," he added, the same day new August housing figures showed the median U.S. house price to be $203,100. While down $73,000 in real terms from the height of the bubble two years ago, that's still a full 40 percent higher than it was at the beginning of 1997.

...
If you want to know when this country's political class, even those hailing from the allegedly pro-market Republican Party, lost faith in the single greatest economic organizing principle ever devised by mankind, look no further than the following six terse sentences from Bush's decidedly unpresidential speech: "I'm a strong believer in free enterprise. So my natural instinct is to oppose government intervention. I believe companies that make bad decisions should be allowed to go out of business. Under normal circumstances, I would have followed this course. But these are not normal circumstances. The market is not functioning properly." Italics mine, to highlight the favored lament of reluctant central planners everywhere.